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The Transformation of Russia’s Regional Elites: A System-Dynamics Model with Counterfactual Scenarios 1985-2019

In: Russian Politics
Authors:
Matthew Crosston Director of Academic Transformation, Office of the Provost, Bowie State University Bowie, MD USA

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Dmitry Seltser Professor, Department of International Relations and Political Science, G.R. Derzhavin Tambov State University Tambov Russian Federation

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Dmitry Zhukov Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Political Science, G.R. Derzhavin Tambov State University Tambov Russian Federation

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Abstract

The system-dynamic model elaborates processes for recruiting political elites across Russia’s regions from 1985 to 2019. The authors consider several counterfactual scenarios through computational simulations. The first series includes the radical disintegration of Soviet recruitment mechanisms. The second series elaborates the opposite scenario: the gradual evolution/preservation of Soviet continuity. The third series simulates a unique situation where Vladimir Putin abandons his policy for strengthening the “vertical of power.” A key finding is that the fight against new threats (crime, corruption, separatism) did not allow the center to realize the impact of traditional existing institutions that had corrosive and destructive power.

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